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16 January 2025

Stay underweight Chinese equities, sell the renminbi. The Chinese corporate profit cycle is worsening , signalling that the economy Is yet to bottom. 25% of Chinese manufacturers are loss making companies while the debt overhang is growing. Meanwhile risk aversion among companies and households is becoming entrenched. Xi and the property market crisis are paralysing the private sector and killing entrepreneurial spirit. A bilateral US-China trade deal will be struck. Both Trump and Xi are pragmatist and deal makers, plus Xi has bigger problems to contend with at home.
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