Issue 27: Lone Ranger

8 May 2025

Trading Post feels like a lone ranger – this year’s  calls are so outrageously out synch with consensus and market action. The forecast has always been volatility and a weak 1H , followed by a 2H pick-up.  Business cycle fundamentals continue to show no signs of a full-blown recession or a sustained resurgence in inflation. 1Q25 earnings data confirm the corporate profit cycle – the single most important indicator – remains in upswing across the US, Europe, Japan, India, Taiwan and Indonesia. China is the outlier. Meanwhile the trade war is in the de-escalation phase. Money supply growth trends suggest that any tariff induced pick up in inflation will be temporary.