Issue 36: Summertime

31 July 2025

If Trump is feeling vindicated, he is justified. His escalate to de-escalate tariff war strategy has worked. The EU, Japan and Korea have buckled and struck awful deals – committing themselves to huge investments in the US while accepting significantly higher tariff rates and opening their own markets. Don’t expect China to settle for anything less than a win-win deal. Despite the scaremongering the impact on global trade and inflation has been - and is likely to remain - limited. World and Asian exports are trending up while price discounting and tighter liquidity conditions are keeping inflation in check