17 July 2025
So far only two of Trading Post’s macro calls have missed the mark, while nine of eleven equity market investment recommendations are performing well. The key call that isn’t playing out is the anticipated recovery of the US dollar in 2H25. Trading Post’s US dollar view is grounded in business cycle fundamentals, attractive interest rate differentials and the expectation that a continued stock market rally will draw in capital flows. That said the long-term outlook for the US dollar is probably secular decline. Gold and emerging central bank multi-currency platforms pose credible challenges. But Trading Post suspects stablecoin could turn out to be the biggest game changer – especially if the three crypto bills under consideration are, as expected, passed by the US House of Representatives.
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