24 July 2025
The 2025 investment strategy is unchanged following the latest assessment. The aggregate business cycle indicator score of the eleven countries in Trading Post’s universe has improved. Corporate profit cycles are on the upswing — or strengthening — in more countries than they are deteriorating. Investment cycles are in upswing in five countries, notably in the US, Europe, Japan, which together account for almost 50% of global GDP. Credit cycles are yet to pick up in several countries, it is a lag issue and should not be a source of concern.Bar the US, where the two-real lending rate is rising, the cost of capital is appropriately prices in most countries and if anything, too cheap in Japan and Taiwan.
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